Confidence progression

The confidence progression chart is a line chart that tracks how the probability of each variant being the best performer evolves over time since the campaign was sent.

How to read it

• The horizontal axis is time since the campaign was sent (in hours)
• The vertical axis is the probability of being best (0% to 100%)
• A horizontal dashed line marks the decision threshold (default: 90%)
• Each variant gets its own coloured line

After your campaign sends, engagement events (opens, clicks, conversions) flow back to liftstack via webhooks. As each batch of events arrives, the Bayesian model updates and the probability estimates shift. You can watch confidence build from 50% (no information) toward the decision threshold.

What to look for

• A line climbing steadily toward the threshold suggests the test is heading toward a conclusion
• A line that is flat or bouncing around suggests the variants are very close and it may take a while
• If two lines are converging, the variants may end up being declared equivalent

During live tracking, this chart auto-refreshes every 60 seconds.

When to check

For open rate as the primary metric, signal typically arrives within hours. For conversion rate and revenue, expect 12 to 48 hours depending on your audience size and typical conversion timeline.

There is no statistical penalty for checking results early or often, unlike frequentist methods. The Bayesian approach handles continuous monitoring naturally, so you can look at the chart as frequently as you like without inflating error rates.