Skip to main content
liftstack
Sign In Start Free Trial

The verdict card

Every slot in every campaign produces a verdict card. This is the primary output of liftstack: a clear, actionable recommendation based on your data. There are four possible verdicts.

Winner Found

Displayed with a green background and trophy icon. A clear winner has been identified. The card shows:

  • Which variant won and how many others it beat
  • The conversion rates compared (winner vs control)
  • The uplift: additional conversions and additional revenue this variant generated
  • Confidence level and probability of being best
  • Revenue range (best case to worst case)

Equivalent

Displayed with a grey background and equals icon. All variants performed within a negligible range of each other. The card tells you to pick whichever fits your brand best. There is no performance-based reason to choose one over another.

Insufficient Data

Displayed with an amber background and hourglass icon. No conclusion yet. One variant is leading but not decisively. The card shows:

  • Which variant is currently leading
  • The probability that the current leader is actually the best (below the decision threshold)
  • An estimate of how many additional exposures are needed before a conclusion can be reached

Guardrail Violation

Displayed with a red background and warning icon. A variant triggered a safety guardrail, typically because it caused a meaningful increase in unsubscribe rates compared to the control. Even if it has a high probability of being best on the primary metric, it will not be declared a winner because it is damaging your audience.

Confidence levels

Confidence levels translate the raw probability into a human-readable label:

Probability of Being BestConfidence LevelWhat It Means
95% or higherVery HighExtremely likely this is the true best variant. Declare a winner.
85% to 95%HighVery probably the best, but a small chance you are wrong. Consider collecting more data if the stakes are high.
70% to 85%ModerateLeading, but there is meaningful uncertainty. Likely needs more data.
Below 70%LowToo early to tell. Keep testing.

The uplift callout

The uplift callout is the key value statement of your test. It answers: “How much more did I get by using the winning variant instead of the control?”

It shows two numbers:

  • Additional conversions: how many extra people converted because of the winning content
  • Additional revenue: the estimated revenue those extra conversions generated

These numbers come with a range (e.g., ”+£8,200 to +£16,800”) so you know the realistic best and worst case. The number also includes the probability that this is a real improvement (not just noise).