The verdict card
Every slot in every campaign produces a verdict card. This is the primary output of liftstack: a clear, actionable recommendation based on your data. There are four possible verdicts.
Winner Found
Displayed with a green background and trophy icon. A clear winner has been identified. The card shows:
- Which variant won and how many others it beat
- The conversion rates compared (winner vs control)
- The uplift: additional conversions and additional revenue this variant generated
- Confidence level and probability of being best
- Revenue range (best case to worst case)
Equivalent
Displayed with a grey background and equals icon. All variants performed within a negligible range of each other. The card tells you to pick whichever fits your brand best. There is no performance-based reason to choose one over another.
Insufficient Data
Displayed with an amber background and hourglass icon. No conclusion yet. One variant is leading but not decisively. The card shows:
- Which variant is currently leading
- The probability that the current leader is actually the best (below the decision threshold)
- An estimate of how many additional exposures are needed before a conclusion can be reached
Guardrail Violation
Displayed with a red background and warning icon. A variant triggered a safety guardrail, typically because it caused a meaningful increase in unsubscribe rates compared to the control. Even if it has a high probability of being best on the primary metric, it will not be declared a winner because it is damaging your audience.
Confidence levels
Confidence levels translate the raw probability into a human-readable label:
| Probability of Being Best | Confidence Level | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| 95% or higher | Very High | Extremely likely this is the true best variant. Declare a winner. |
| 85% to 95% | High | Very probably the best, but a small chance you are wrong. Consider collecting more data if the stakes are high. |
| 70% to 85% | Moderate | Leading, but there is meaningful uncertainty. Likely needs more data. |
| Below 70% | Low | Too early to tell. Keep testing. |
The uplift callout
The uplift callout is the key value statement of your test. It answers: “How much more did I get by using the winning variant instead of the control?”
It shows two numbers:
- Additional conversions: how many extra people converted because of the winning content
- Additional revenue: the estimated revenue those extra conversions generated
These numbers come with a range (e.g., ”+£8,200 to +£16,800”) so you know the realistic best and worst case. The number also includes the probability that this is a real improvement (not just noise).